Downstream restocking demand was released amid low prices, with SHFE tin prices remaining low [SMM Tin Midday Review]

Lunchtime Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract on May 30, 2025

As of the midday break, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2507) was quoted at 251,120 yuan/mt, down 2.55% from the previous settlement price. After opening in the morning, the contract remained under pressure, dipping to a low of 250,000 yuan/mt. Open interest increased to 33,400 lots, reflecting a combination of active short selling and longs exiting the market for risk aversion.

Rumors of Production Resumptions in Myanmar's Wa Region: Market rumors suggest that the first batch of tin ore from the Wa Region has received export approval (yet to be confirmed). If true, an increase in output (with a planned monthly production of 800-1,000 mt) could be expected by the end of June. However, given the strict customs inspections at the China-Myanmar border, the entry of large equipment and personnel has been delayed, casting doubt on the actual progress of production resumptions.

Divergence in Spot Market Transactions: After tin prices fell below the 260,000 yuan threshold, downstream demand for restocking at lower prices was released, with traders completing transactions exceeding 100 mt. However, transactions remained sluggish in the higher price range (>265,000 yuan).

Just-in-Time Procurement by Solder Enterprises: Orders from the electronics/home appliance industries have not seen a significant increase. Only top-tier enterprises have benefited from the "trade-in" policy, which has supported their production schedules.

Spot Market: Morning trading in the spot market was relatively active, with most traders completing transactions for around one truckload. Some downstream enterprises have yet to conduct significant restocking and are maintaining a wait-and-see attitude.